Mining Journal Bullish on Ilovitza

Mining Journal is remarkably bullish on the Ilovitza project in Macedonia.  John C. Menzies, CEO of Cmi Capital Limited was previously the CEO of Euromax and built the company and its exploration assets over an 8 year period.

The ilovtiza mine is planned for the back of the large bald mountain behind the villages of Ilovtiza and Stuka in Macedonia
The Ilovtiza mine is planned for the back of the large bald mountain behind the villages of Ilovitza and Stuka in Macedonia

The Ilovitza mine is planned for the back of the large bald mountain behind the villages of Ilovitza and Stuka in Macedonia\n\n\”Multi-billion-dollar returns from a world class gold-copper resource are usually the preserve of mining’s majors, not a minnow. But they are exactly what investors in Euromax Resources (TSX: EOX) have to look forward to from the US$475 million Ilovica project in Macedonia, which is ready to move forward in what president and CEO Steve Sharpe describes as an ideal environment for building major new mining projects.\n\n“This is exactly the time to be building a copper-gold mine of this size because the amount of chits that are being offered to us now in terms of major capital items that would normally be the long lead stuff,” he says. “The offers are coming from mining companies, from suppliers that have cancelled orders, and this is all brand new equipment at a fraction of the retail price or list price. So I expect to see some fairly chunky capex and operational savings.”

Production is slated at 83,000 oz pa of gold and 16,000tpa of copper, starting in 2018, with overall average process recoveries at 83.3% for gold and 81.3% for copper”.

Ilovitza is a Tertiary porphyry copper-gold deposit and is ideally situated for development being close to services, water and infrastructure.  The measured and indicated resources total 250 million tonnes containing 2.6 M ounces of gold and  550,000 tonnes of copper.   While the grade is low, the low stripping ratio, low infrastructure capital and operating costs and proximity to rail and smelters reports an attractive NPV and IRR in the feasibility study.

Manaslu Trek Update

Sunset on false summit, Manaslu. Credit Himalayan Expeditions

 

As departure date approaches for our trek in the Manaslu region,the monsoon season remains in full swing.  On Manaslu (8,163m) this year there are a remarkable number of foreign climbers and climbing Sherpas.  Seven Summits Trek is reporting 60 climbers and 70 Sherpas on the mountain, Asian Trekking has 18 foreign climbers and Himalayan Experience has five.  Trekking Camp Nepal is managing a Korean team and then there are the Chinese.   Considering that Manaslu has only been summited 980 times since Toshio Imanishi and Gyalzen Norbu first climbed it on May 9, 1956, 2016 should see a large number of summits.  This large increase in interest should have a very positive economic impact on the Budh Kandaki Valley communities hit hard by the 2015 earthquake.

Russel Brice from Himalayan Experience reported September 8:

    • Himalayan Experience now in Base Camp (BC) after leaving Kathmandu on August 29 for their 9th trip to Manaslu;
    • Himalayan Experience team flew into Samagaon by helicopter. Supplies however still portered over Larkya Pass from the Marvangdi Valley to the west. Team Cmi will however be trekking up the Budh Kandaki valley after a steep descent following a traverse just 1 km from the 2015 earthquake epicentre.
    • Russel Brice reports considerable new house development in Samagaon but slow progress on road and track clearing along the Budh Kandaki Valley which was severely impacted by the 2015 earthquake.
The thriving village of Samagaon, just before the trek up to Base Camp. Credit Himalayan Experience
The thriving village of Samagaon, just before the trek up to Base Camp. Credit Himalayan Experience

On September 13 Russel Brice reported that the rain continued.

    • Rain in Base Camp (BC) continues. Meteotest suggests that the tail end of the monsoon is approaching with BC on the edge of the rain band –  still its very wet.
    • BC is filling with Himalayan Experience, Seven Summits and Japanese teams with a large group of Chinese waiting for a weather break in Samagaon.
    • The Japanese team is attempting the East ridge route to the summit and reportedly making good progress.
    • Seven Summits have the rope fixing contract for all teams for 2016 and are making good progress and on the 11/9 got within 200m of C2 after using 8 ladders on the upper reaches of the Hour Glass.  They made the route to C3 yesterday.
    • Himalayan Experience spent the night at C1 on the 12th.
Benegas Brother Expedition to Manaslu trekking down the Budh Kandaki valley towards Samogan which they reached yesterday September 15. Remote spectacular and currently wet. Manaslu is up to the right of the image and Samogan is directly ahead. Team Cmi will be walking in the opposite direction. Credit: Benegas Brothers
Benegas Brothers Expedition to Manaslu trekking down the Budh Kandaki valley towards Samogan which they reached yesterday September 15. Remote spectacular and currently wet. Manaslu is up to the right of the image and Samogan is directly ahead. Team Cmi will be walking in the opposite direction. Credit: Benegas Brothers
View down Manaslu from C1. Note the absence of snow due to heavy precipitation. Credit: Himalayan Experience
View down Manaslu from C1. Note the absence of snow due to heavy precipitation. Credit: Himalayan Experience

 

Alan Arnette comments that Seven Summits is already on their final acclimatization rotation aiming to spend nights at Camps 1, 2 and 3 before returning to base camp for the usual late September weather window.

Meanwhile Benegas Brothers Expeditions are mounting an expedition this year as well.  The last members of their team arrived in Kathmandu on September 4.  They left for Manaslu BC, September 7, via 4×4 to the village of Nagani Khola –  the end of the road.  The team trekked up the Marvangdi Valley and over Larkya Pass.  The Benegas Brothers team members reached Samagaon on the 15/9.  They will now stage to Base Camp.  This is a rapid ascent route and gives limited opportunity for acclimatization for climbers.  We will be trekking in the reverse direction over the pass after visiting Manaslu Base Camp.\n\n Benegas Brother Expedition to Manaslu trekking down the Budh Kandaki valley towards Samogan which they reached yesterday September 15. Remote spectacular and currently wet.

In summary, it’s been wet in Nepal this season and as of writing the freezing level was up to 5,000 metres.  There is little snow on the lower slopes and progress up Manaslu has been fast.  This more remote region of Nepal, around  Manaslu should be both a challenge and a delight. 

Our route will begin in Barpak with a  steep 1000 metre ascent to the ridge and rapid 2,000 descent to Laprak, Gumda and the Budh Kandaki river –  in the first two days.  We will then walk up the Budh Kandaki Valley and eventually over the Larkya Pass at just over 5,000 metres.   We will post regularly on this blog ( and Twitter, Facebook and Linkedin) when communications allow.

We leave Kathmandu on on 12th October –  should be quite the hoot.

First Production from Bangka by Chevron Indonesia

Chevron Indonesia has started production from the Bangka Field in the Kutei Basin offshore East Kalimantan following an investment decision by the company in 2014 and subsequent Indonesian government approvals.  Development drilling commenced in September 2014.

Chevron Production platform

Geology

The 60,000 km2 Kutei basin extends from the central highlands of Borneo, across the eastern coast of the island and into the Makassar Strait. It is the largest Tertiary basin in Indonesia with up to 15 km of sediment.  The Kutei is an extensional basin in a foreland tectonic setting. Extension began in the Mid Eocene with subsequent thermal sag, and isostatic subsidence.  Rapid, high volume, sedimentation related to uplift and inversion began in the Early Miocene.

Syn-rift deposition in the Eocene was focused in small, localised depocenters within individual half-grabens.  The initial graben fill is highly variable due to the wide zone of rifting, and ranges from fully terrestrial in the western basin, to entirely marine in the eastern basin.  Syn-rift sedimentation following the initial graben fill is variable across the basin, but several distinct facies tracts have been identified. Non marine, deltaic, shallow marine, deep marine and carbonate platform syn-rift deposits are found in the basin.

Sag phase deposition began in the Upper Eocene to Oligocene. A regional depocenter developed in response to marine transgression. The eastern basin, already influenced by marine conditions quickly transitioned to a deep marine depositional environment, while the western basin transitioned more slowly. A thick marine shale was deposited across much of the basin, while carbonate sedimentation continued on along the basin margin and across topographic highs.

Large carbonate platforms developed along the basin margins as the result of shallowing marine environments in the early phases of the Late Oligocene tectonic inversion combined with a marine regression. As tectonic uplift of central Borneo continued into the lower Miocene, the westernmost portion of the Kutai Basin was inverted above sea level, forming the Upper Kutai Basin.\n\nIn the Early Miocene large amounts of clastic sediment derived from the rising central mountains, and the now inverted Paleogene flowed into the lower Kutai Basin. Basin inversion in the middle Miocene and Pliocene saw a shift in the deltaic depo-centre eastwards into the Makassar Straight.

Neogene sediments in the vicinity of the modern Mahakam delta are up to 9 kilometres thick with total sediment thickness of up to 15 km.

Production & Development

In the Kutei Basin in East Kalimantan, most of the Chevron production has come from 14 offshore fields in the shelf area within the East Kalimantan PSC, with the remainder from the deepwater West Seno Field in the Makassar Strait PSC.\n\nThe development will be the first deep-water subsea tieback thus far in Indonesia and will utilise subsea well connections to the West Seno FPU.  It will also be Indonesia’s first deepwater flexible pipeline and the first single deepwater umbilical installed.

Nameplate production capacity in this initial development stage is 110 MMcf/d of natural gas and 4,000 b/d of condensate. Chevron has a 62% operating interest in the Bangka project with ENI SA holding a 20% interest and Tip Top Energy Ltd with 18% interest.

Manaslu, Nepal: October 2016

Team CMI is now preparing for 3 weeks hiking around Manaslu.

We will climb to base camp and reach 17,000 feet.  October 2016 before heading over the Larkya La (pass).   Manaslu is the eighth highest mountain in the world reaching 8,163 metres (26,781 ft) above sea level. It is located in the a part of the Nepalese Himalayas known as the Mansiri Himal.  Manaslu means “mountain of the spirit” in Nepalese comes from the Sanskrit word manasa, meaning “intellect” or “soul”.  Manaslu was first climbed on May 9, 1956 by Toshio Imanishi.  Our expedition will start a few kilometres from the epicentre of the 2015 earthquake that devastated much of the country.

A Very Quiet Sun

Solar Disk 20160704 – Very Quiet with no numbered sun spots on the face

As we come off the Solar Maximum the sun continues to show very low levels of activity.  For months solar activity has been at very low levels despite being at solar max.  Currently there are no numbered sunspots on the disk and activity is expected to remain at these levels for the coming few days (the limit of forecast capability).  The geomagnetic field is also at low levels and solar winds peaked at 593 km/sec at 03/0341Z.  As we head into what could be the quietest solar minimum in several hundred years the impact on climate will be very interesting.

International sunspot number Sn, with last 13 years and forecasts

Given the hiatus in global temperatures in the last 20 years plus the onset of La Nina Pacific Ocean cooling event, the coming Northern Winter could be a cold one.  Given that we are at the peak of the warming cycle,  we could well be close to the terminal phase prior to a significant decrease in global temperatures.  Will the coincidence of La Nina and weak Solar Minimum prove to be a tipping point in global climate.  Given the current orientation of the earth, this would seem quite likely in coming few years.

Reference Sites:

Stalagmite Research in the SW Pacific Highlights the complexity of Global Climate

Stalagmite Research in the SW Pacific Highlights the complexity of Global Climate

Interesting research published in Nature communications comments on the global warming pause, the Little Ice Age impacts in the Pacific and the over simplicity of climate models.  The stalagmites used in this study (LR06-B1 and LR06-B3) were collected from Liang Luar, an ~1.7-km-long cave situated on the east Indonesian island of Flores (8° 32’N, 120° 26’E; 550m above sea level.  They used U/Th dating, 18O and 13C isotope profiles, trace element analysis, principle component analysis and GCMs to conclude that:

  • “from the beginning of this century until recently, the tropical Pacific was locked into a negative Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation phase (that is, low-frequency La Niña-like pattern) in association with increased Walker and Hadley circulation winds and eastern Pacific cooling”
  • “The La Niña-like pattern is thought to be a factor contributing to the recent so-called ‘warming hiatus and earlier twentieth century cool and warm decades”.
  • “Therefore, our analysis of multi-century hydroclimate variability suggests that projections of tropical rainfall patterns, and global temperature extremes, will remain uncertain until paleoclimate records and models consistently capture the lower-frequency variability, and associated feedbacks, in the tropical Pacific”.

Importantly, in this data there is clear evidence that the dry period evident around the turn of the last millennium coincides with the approximate timing of the Medieval Climate Anomaly ~950–1250 CE seen in Europe.    The Little Ice Age event (widely thought to have been a largely European event) can be seen in this data with a ~400-year reduction in AISM rainfall recovering in strength at around 1300, and by 1500 is above average –  coincident with the Little Ice Age. Maximum rainfall in Flores at ~1600 CE, amongst the wettest periods of the past 2,000 years, is synchronous (within dating uncertainty) with peak cooling in the Northern Hemisphere and maximum ice discharge in the North Atlantic.  This is solid evidence for the global nature of the MCA and LIA.

Abstract

Interdecadal modes of tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere circulation have a strong influence on global temperature, yet the extent to which these phenomena influence global climate on multi century timescales is still poorly known. Here we present a 2,000-year, multiproxy reconstruction of western Pacific hydroclimate from two speleothem records for southeastern Indonesia. The composite record shows pronounced shifts in monsoon rainfall that are antiphased with precipitation records for East Asia and the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. These meridional and zonal patterns are best explained by a poleward expansion of the Australasian Intertropical Convergence Zone and weakening of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) between ~1000 and 1500 CE Conversely, an equatorward contraction of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and strengthened PWC occurred between ~1500 and 1900 CE. Our findings, together with climate model simulations, highlight the likelihood that century-scale variations in tropical Pacific climate modes can significantly modulate radiatively forced shifts in global temperature.

Original Research Paper:  Read Here

Download PDF: Here

Climate and Sea Level – Regular Dramatic Change over 1.2 Ma

As  can be seen in the above graphic,  isotopic data derived from ice-cores, deep-sea sediment sediments and other proxies shows dramatic and a characteristic “saw-tooth” signature over the Pleistocene  (1.2 million years).

For a compilation of the same oxygen isotope and other data over the last 2.7 million years (which shows the same repetitive saw tooth change in climate/temperature proxies) see the image below:

Global chronostratigraphical correlation table for the last 2.7 million years.  High Resolution Image

This data shows very clearly that longer periods of slow cooling are followed (or preceded!) by dramatic periods of warming.  The current warming period commenced well before recent industrialisation and consistent with the trend and the satellite temperature data would now seem to be at or close to its peak.  Is it any wonder that humanity has prospered during this warming period.

This data suggests that we should expect a slow cooling in the near future and the implications  of that for humanity will be serious with declines in crop production and likely population unless we have averted the catastrophic impacts through CO2 emissions.

Fossil fuel usage saved the earth from the ravage of a growing population in the past and it is possible that it is now saving humanity from the next ice-age that is if the miniscule contribution of humanity to planet wide CO2 production is having any meaningful impact.

Original Research:  

No Ordinary Rock

Looks like any old rock –  but this is no ordinary rock, its on the surface of Mars.

This rock was photographed a couple of days ago using the Mars Hand Lens Imager (MAHLI) on NASA’s Curiosity Mars rover. Curiosity has now been operational on Mars for 1, 282 days.

The unassuming rock in the center of this image consists of laminated sandstone with small nodules  and is 2 cms across.  Weathered nodules litter the ground around the rock.

This nodule is about one inch (two centimeters) across. It appears within the composite image below in the left foreground.  The image was taken on a Sol 1276 view  from Curiosity Mast Camera.

Panoramic image from the Mast Camera.  The rock above is from the left of the image.  The image field is around 2×1.5 metres.  More Detail.

Patches of Martian sandstone visible in the lower-left and upper portions of this view from the Mast Camera of NASA’s Curiosity Mars rover have a knobbly texture due to nodules apparently more resistant to erosion than the host rock in which some are still embedded.

The site is at a zone on lower Mount Sharp where mudstone of the Murray geological unit — visible in the lower right corner here — is exposed adjacent to the overlying Stimson unit. The exact contact between Murray and Stimson here is covered with windblown sand. Most other portions of the Stimson unit investigated by Curiosity have not shown erosion-resistant nodules. Curiosity encountered this unusually textured exposure on the rover’s approach to the “Naukluft Plateau.”

Just for a little perspective, while we view the geology on another plant, its a little more than 100 years since we first flew in the air!

More information on the Image is available here.

A Planet of Plates

Chris Harrison from Department of Marine Geosciences, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami  in a paper in Earth,  Planets and Space has sought to resolve the question of the number plates that make up the surface of the earth.

Major Plate Boundaries. By USGS – http://pubs.usgs.gov/publications/text/slabs.html, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=535201

The number of tectonic plates on Earth described in the literature has expanded greatly since the start of the plate tectonic era, when only about a dozen plates were considered in global models of present-day plate motions.  With an ever-increasing number of earthquake monitoring sites, improving  ocean bathymetry using swath mapping, and the use of space based geodetic techniques, there has been a huge growth in the number of plates thought to exist.  In 2003 the total was thought to be 52 delineated on the basis of earthquake epicentre data.

Chris now proposes a total of 159 plates (with some additional smaller plates yet to be mapped).

The largest plate (Pacific) is about 20 % of the Earth’s area or 104 million km2, and the smallest plate is only 273 km2. The Earth is continuously evolving with the continuous creation of new oceanic crust and its destruction in subduction zones.  This has a very significant impact on the distribution of continents, movement of water within the worlds oceans (over time) and plays an important part in the evolution of life on this planet.

REF: The present-day number of tectonic plates, Earth, Planets and Space 2016, 68:37.  Download PDF

Abstract

The number of tectonic plates on Earth described in the literature has expanded greatly since the start of the plate tectonic era, when only about a dozen plates were considered in global models of present-day plate motions. With new techniques of more accurate earthquake epicenter locations, modern ways of measuring ocean bathymetry using swath mapping, and the use of space based geodetic techniques, there has been a huge growth in the number of plates thought to exist. The study by Bird (2003) proposed 52 plates, many of which were delineated on the basis of earthquake locations. Because of the pattern of areas of these plates, he suggested that there should be more small plates than he could identify. In this paper, I gather together publications that have proposed a total of 107 new plates, giving 159 plates in all. The largest plate (Pacific) is about 20 % of the Earth’s area or 104 Mm2, and the smallest of which (Plate number 5 from Hammond et al. 2011) is only 273 km2 in area. Sorting the plates by size allows us to investigate how size varies as a function of order. There are several changes of slope in the plots of plate number organized by size against plate size order which are discussed. The sizes of the largest seven plates is constrained by the area of the Earth. A middle set of 73 plates down to an area of 97,563 km2 (the Danakil plate at number 80, is the plate of median size) follows a fairly regular pattern of plate size as a function of plate number. For smaller plates, there is a break in the slope of the plate size/plate number plot and the next 32 plates follow a pattern of plate size proposed by the models of Koehn et al. (2008) down to an area of 11,638 km2(West Mojave plate # 112). Smaller plates do not follow any regular pattern of area as a function of plate number, probably because we have not sampled enough of these very small plates to reveal any clear pattern.

The Silence of the Moons of Saturn

Saturn’s moons Tethys (in the foreground) & Janus (small irregular moon in the background) – Courtesy Cassini spacecraft – nasa.govThe view was obtained at a distance of approximately 593,000 miles (955,000 kilometres) from Janus. Image scale at Janus is 3.7 miles (6 kilometres) per pixel. Tethys was at a distance of 810,000 miles (1.3 million kilometres) for an image scale of 5 miles (8 kilometres) per pixel.

Janus is a small inner moon of Saturn (radius 90 km and density,  0.63 g/cm3 and orbit 151,470 km) and has a nearly identical orbit to the moon, Epimetheus (not seen in this image).  The moons are separated from one another by an astonishingly small 50km.  Every four years they swap orbital positions.  Janus is heavily cratered with the largest having a radius of 30km.  The passage of Janus through the rings of Saturn maintains the sharp edge of the A ring.

Tethys is a mid-sized moon of Saturn (radius 530 km, mean density 0.98 g/cm3, surface gravity 0.15m/s2 and orbit of 294,600 km). Tethys has the lowest density of any of the major moons of Saturn and consists of water ice with just a small fraction of rock.  The surface of Tethys is very bright, being the second-brightest of the moons of Saturn after Enceladus, and neutral in color.

Tethys is heavily cratered and cut by a number of large faults and grabens. The largest impact crater, Odysseus, is about 400 km in diameter and the largest graben, Ithaca Chasma, is about 100 km wide and more than 2000 km long.

Moons like Tethys are large enough that their own gravity is sufficient to overcome the material strength of the substances they are made of (mostly ice in the case of Tethys) and mould them into spherical shapes. But small moons like Janus  are not massive enough for their gravity to form them into a sphere.

For more information.

The World Around Us!