Solar Observer

As our nearest star, Sol, enters the quietest solar minimum in more than a century its time to take regular look at its activity, courtesy of USAF and NASA and otherwise as credited. Sol turns 600 million tonnes of hydrogen into helium every second and has done so for more than 5 billion years. This results in a mass loss of 0.7% or 4.5 million tonnes which is converted into energy right across the electromagnetic spectrum. The isolation received by earth is equivalent to a mere 2 kg of this mass conversion and yet humans consume only 1/10,000 of this amount in total.

Solar Activity: 14th September 2019

Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Sep, 16 Sep, 17 Sep).

Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z

  • The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 512 km/s at 13/2118Z.
  • Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3102 pfu.

Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (15 Sep, 16 Sep, 17 Sep).

Event probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep

  • Class M    01/01/01
  • Class X    01/01/01
  • Proton     01/01/01
  • PCAF       green

Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep

Middle Latitudes
Active                 10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm            20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/20

Solar Activity for: 31st July, 2019

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

Near-Live image of the sun in 171 angstrom as seen by NASA’s SDO.

Solar Activity Forecast

  • Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug, 08 Aug).

Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z

  • The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
  • Solar wind speed reached a peak of 752 km/s at 05/1723Z. Total IMF reached 23 nT at 05/0857Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -21 nT at 05/0701Z.

Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Aug), quiet to active levels on day two (07 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 Aug).

Event probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug

Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/15
Minor Storm 25/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
High Latitudes
Active 05/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 65/40/25

Solar Activity for: 31st July, 2019

Near-Live image of the solar surface as seen by NASA’s SDO. 2019-08-01 11:10:46Z

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z

  • Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours.
  • There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

Solar Activity Forecast

  • Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug, 03 Aug).

Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z

  • The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours.
  • Solar wind speed reached a peak of 532 km/s at 31/1926Z.
  • Total IMF reached 11 nT at 30/2229Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 30/2246Z.

Geophysical Activity Forecast

  • The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Aug) and quiet levels on days two and three (02 Aug, 03 Aug).
Event probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

Solar Activity for: 22nd July 2019

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z

  • Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
    hours.
  • There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

Solar Activity Forecast

  • Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Jul, 23 Jul, 24 Jul).

Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z

Near real time face of the spotless sun. Nasa Solar Dynamics Observatory NASA SDO 20190722-121146Zulu
  • The geomagneticfield has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
  • Solar wind speed reached a peak of 368 km/s at 21/0423Z.
  • Total IMF reached 9 nT at 21/1834Z.
  • The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 21/0440Z.
  • Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1363 pfu.

Geophysical Activity Forecast

  • The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (23 Jul, 24 Jul).

Event probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

Our Sun is about halfway through the “main sequence” part of its life. During this part, the Sun “burns” hydrogen into helium (fusion), which is what generates the heat and light. The Sun has been doing this for about 5 billion years, so in 13,000 years (15,000 A.D.) there will be no real difference from the energy left now. In about 5 billion more years, the useable hydrogen (not all the hydrogen) will have been converted to helium, and the Sun will start burning helium, and become a red giant. After that the Sun will recollapse down to a white dwarf and last for billions of years more.

Dr. Eric Christian

Solar Activity for: 17th July 2019

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (18 Jul, 19 Jul, 20 Jul).†

Sunspot number courtesy SpaceWeatherLive.com

Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 505 km/s at 17/0718Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 17/0620Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 17/0110Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1889 pfu.

Near-Live image of the solar surface as seen by NASA’s SDO. 2019-07-18 14:26 EDT

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (18 Jul, 19 Jul, 20
Jul).

Event probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X    01/01/01
  • Proton     01/01/01
  • PCAF       green

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