As both total and new case of COVID are growing exponentially, plots of total vs. new cases on log-log scales by country are revealing. As can be seen in the chart below, for China, the impact of stringent lockdown and social distancing is to flatten the curve until the number of new cases drops, as all of those in isolation with the virus develop symptoms. It appears as though the tough regimen in Australia is having a positive impact and likely the same in Bulgaria.
France and Iran have seen a flattening in the trend of new cases, however in Iran it appears to be increasing yet again.
While Italy struggles to contain the virus with a flattening trend developing there is no evidence of such a trend in either the UK or the US reflecting the late adoption of social distancing policies in both countries. Cases in the UK and USA will march significantly higher.
Without either a vaccine or anti-viral prophylactic it is likely that COVID19 will simply re-emerge, as a single case can initiate new clusters until there is sufficient community immunity. This pandemic was predictable and forecast by many. I previously wrote about the paucity of antibiotic research and the long-term implications for the healthcare system of antibiotic resistant staphylococcus. The focus of your politicians and the media has for years however been the ever-present and exaggerated crisis of Climate Change. Meanwhile virological research struggled for funding, reflected in the continued absence of a SARS-COV-1 vaccine or effective antivirals.
It is time to redirect government funds, subsidies and energies from the Climate Change Agenda into fighting this virus, rebuilding our economies, establishing a global network to monitor health and microbe evolution and lastly research into the obvious viral and bacterial threats to a global population approaching 10 billion. If we do not do this, new microbial threats will evolve, and the next one could easily be as contagious but more lethal than SARS-COV-2. The impact of a highly contagious hemorrhagic fever which was contagious in the pre-symptomatic phase, like SARS-COV-1, is unimaginable and would be far more terrifying than this pandemic. This far we have indeed been lucky.