Category Archives: Climate

The Climate Change Agenda is in THE ICU

Well, We most certainly live in interesting times.

A few weeks ago, the media were as usual, fixated on climate change, climate change conferences and a certain hysterical teen.  Politicians and celebrities were falling over one another to signal their virtue with joint appearances and media interviews.

With the world now facing a real threat, one which potentially is fatal, climate change has disappeared from the media.  Occasional articles now proclaim that Global Warming will cause far more deaths than this virus, but increasingly this propaganda is falling on deaf ears as the population have a few more serious issues to contend with, like survival and food.

While the virus was gestating and spreading from China your politicians were obsessed with the hysterical teen and climate change, oblivious to real threat so evident to many, a threat now manifest.

The dilemma for the global warming alarmists is?….can they ever see a return to the media momentum of the past few years?  I would suggest that is very unlikely.  The population now have some firsthand experience of a real existential threat, not the distant, exaggerated and multitudinious threats of Global Warming.  This is exacerbated by the growing proportion of people who are highly sceptical of the Global Warming science and disbelieving of the excessively alarmist rhetoric.

Can the Global Warming agenda survive the facts?   The climate may be warming, but at a rate which is personally  imperceptible and there is considerable dissonance between the hype and what the population experiences.

Can the momentum of the Climate Change agenda ever be restored?  With Vostok station setting a new record low temperature, with Arctic Sea Ice Extent close to the average since 1979, record low temperatures being seen in Antarctica, floods following fires in Australia and well above average northern hemisphere snow mass.  This would seem very unlikely.

Vast sums have been spent on Global Warming programs, subsidies and conferences in the last decade, while virologists at companies and institutions struggled for years to get funding and we still do not have a vaccine for SARS-COV-1.  Government funding bodies were sceptical of the need for a vaccine, when SARS only survived in the laboratory.  However, the threat from Corona viruses is well documented and your politicians wasted money and some of your lives on programs that might have a miniscule impact on global climate in 100 years or so.  Development of a SARS-COV-1 vaccine and antiviral regimen may have been effective against SARS-COV-2 and at the very least that experience would have been invaluable in our current situation. 

How the world has changed. 

It is time to redirect government funds, subsidies and energies from the Climate Change Agenda into fighting this virus, rebuilding our economies, establishing a global network to monitor health and microbe evolution and lastly research into the obvious viral and bacterial threats to a global population approaching 10 billion.  If we do not do this, new microbial threats will evolve, and the next one could easily be as contagious but more lethal than SARS-COV-2.

The world will be very different when COVID19 is a memory, but likely the world will not forget the distress of a real and present danger as opposed to the increasingly hysterical banter of the Climate Change agenda.  The world will have little appetite for renewed fear from the Climate Change lobby. 

The Climate Change momentum has been lost and its restoration appears to be very unlikely. 

There is a lesson in all of this.  Adherence to the Precautionary Principle in determining public risk management policy can result in a massive misallocation of funding and being entirely blindsided by a genuine threat to humanity. You politicians and media have failed you, whether they modify their behaviour and focus is entirely up to you.  Speak Up and speak up with a  loud voice,

Third Highest Arctic Sea Ice Extent on 09/02 in the Last 15 Years

February 9, 2020

The Arctic sea ice extent is a mere 1.8% less than the 1979-2019 mean and the third highest in the last 15 years.

Mapped Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) on 09/02/2020 was 14.69 million km2 which is 270,000 km2 or 1.8% less than the 1979-2019 average.  This is largest sea ice extent on this day since 2009 and is within 1 standard deviation of the 1979-2019 mean ice extent.

The average sea ice accumulation rate in the last 5 days is 50,000 km2/day. The January 2020 rate of sea ice accumulation is the eight highest in the last 40 years and sea ice extent, volume and thickness are not expected to peak until mid-March 2020.

Sea Ice Extent

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MASIE Arctic Sea Ice Extent and SIE Median for the period 1981-2010
Arctic Sea Ice Extent (MASIE Database – see above image) for the month of February for the period 1979-2020 with the 1979-2019 average.

Annual Arctic sea ice extent 2017-2020 and average and +/- 1SD for the 1917 to 2019

The daily sea ice extent data for February for the period of available data from 1979 to 2020 is shown above. The current sea ice extent is well within the 1 SD of the 1979-2019 average and is the highest since 2009. Arctic sea ice extent shows little trend since 2010.

Arctic sea ice extent is not expected to peak until mid-March 2020.

Daily sea ice extent plot for the period 2006 through 2020. Spot the trend!

The extent of Arctic sea ice varies from summer to winter. The sea ice extent shown here relies on data from the Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) that runs at the National Ice Centre. The IMS product uses several satellite data sources including passive microwave, but it is also based on visual analysis and other data sources and undergoes a form of manual data fusion. The data reported here has a 1 km resolution and was sourced from the National Snow and Ice Data Centre

Highest Arctic Sea Ice Extent on 02/02, Since 2009

February 4, 2020

The Arctic sea ice extent is within 1 SD of the 1979-2019 mean and the highest since 2009 on this day. It is no surprise that this remains unreported in media. A plot of the sea extent time series from 2007 to 2020 shows no significant trend and lacks any evidence for a crisis in the Arctic.

Mapped Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) on 02/02/2020 was 14.42 million km2 which is 370,000 km2 or 2.5% less than the 1979-2019 average.  This is largest sea ice extent on this day since 2009 and is within 1 SD of the 1979-2019 mean ice extent.

The average sea ice accumulation rate in the last 5 days is 55,000 km2/day. The 2019-2020 winter rate of sea ice accumulation is amongst the highest on record and sea ice extent, volume and thickness are not expected to peak until March, 2020.

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MASIE Arctic Sea Ice Extent and SIE Median for the period 1981-2010

Arctic Sea Ice Extent (MASIE Database – see above image) for the month of February for the period 1979-2020 with the 1979-2019 average.

The daily sea ice extent data for February for the period of available data from 1979 to 2020 is shown above. The current sea ice extent is well within the 1 SD of the 1979-2019 average and is the highest since 2009. Arctic sea ice extent shows little trend since 2010.

Arctic sea ice extent is not expected to peak until March 2020.

Annual Arctic sea ice extent 2017-2020 and average and +/- 1SD for the 1917 to 2019

What can be concluded is that the Arctic is not disappearing and that there is little evidence to support the endless claims over the decades that the Arctic sea ice will vanish during a coming summer. While CO2 has increased during this period sea ice extent has failed to decline as predicted. Where is the crisis in the Arctic as there seems to be no relationship between atmospheric CO2 and Arctic ice extent, volume or thickness (see earlier posts)?

The extent of Arctic sea ice varies from summer to winter. The sea ice extent shown here relies on data from the Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) that runs at the National Ice Centre. The IMS product uses several satellite data sources including passive microwave, but it is also based on visual analysis and other data sources and undergoes a form of manual data fusion. The data reported here has a 1 km resolution and was sourced from the National Snow and Ice Data Centre

1984 the Maldives is Disappearing

Over the last 20 years at least there have been near continuous press reports of the near-term disappearance of the Maldives, a series of coral atolls in the Indian Ocean. The chain of 26 atolls stretches from Ihavandhippolhu Atoll in the north to Addu Atoll in the south with an aggregate landmass of about 298 square kilometres (115 sq mi). It is one of the world’s most geographically dispersed sovereign states as well as the smallest Asian country by land area and population, with around 520,000 inhabitants. Malé is the capital and the most populated city, traditionally called the “King’s Island” for its central location.

The alarmist media claims that human induced global warming, resulting from carbon dioxide emissions is to blame for the imminent inundation.

If there is a crisis in the Maldives with the 500,000 about to soon become climate refugees, then it should be evident in the Google Earth imagery. We have compiled the satellite imagery for the Kin Island for every year from 1984 to 2016. You can determine if the Maldives is disappearing.

It can readily be seen in the tide gauge data for Mumbai in India and Fremantle in Western Australia that Indian Ocean sea levels have been rising steadily since record keeping began in the 1800s. There is no evidence in this data (the longest records in the Indian Ocean) that sea levels of recent times are rising catastrophically or have any relationship with atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.

Tide Gauge data from the port of Mumbai in India. (Data: NOAA, Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Service)
Tide Gauge data from the port of Fremantle in Western Australia. (Data: NOAA, Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Service)

There is a risk of inundation in the Maldives however it is due to the natural rise of sea level and has nothing to do with human activity and no amount of expenditure will halt this rise in sea level.  The Maldives should build to accommodate future sea level rise, rather than blame carbon dioxide emissions and seek rent from western countries.

Media reports would indicate that investors remain keen to invest with numerous new airports and resorts under construction.

Heatwave, snow records being broken in Australia! The data record begs to differ.

With the usual breathless hysteria that has become the mainstay of journalism, the above article goes on to claim that temperatures will plummet to 16C after Hobart saw a record 40.9C – “its hottest day ever”. More of the usual journalistic alarmism playing to the narrative that 21st century temperatures are the highest on record.

The meteorological station in Hobart is located in a built-up area on Ellerslie road and has a nearly continuous temperature record dating from 1882.

Ellerslie Road highest and lowest monthly temperatures (Data: Bureau of Meteorology data for station, 94029)

The graph of the maximum and minimum temperatures for Ellerslie Road shows that 2013 was in fact the highest temperature in the record with a warm 41.8C, but temperatures were comparable in the late 1800s as can be seen. While the maximum temperature is expected to see 16C, this is nothing unusual.

On 30th December 1897 the thermometer recorded 40.6C but fell to 17.4C two days later and was 14.6C a few days before on the 20th December 1897. This is the period of the worst drought in Australia, the Centennial Drought and this high temperature was followed by another record on 1st January 1900 with a peak of 40.6C when only days before, on the 27th December 1899, the maximum was a mere 14.6C.

In Tasmania these temperature fluctuations are nothing uncommon.

Mount Wellington covered in snow after 40C day. (Supplied/Adrian Van Beek)

More interestingly there is a long-term upward trend in both the maximum and minimum temperature data for Ellerslie Road, which is evident in the Mean Maximum Temperature Anomaly map (using a mean of 1882-2020). However, the overall temperature trend seen in other Australian data of high temperatures around 1900 and comparable temperatures today is evident in the data.

Ellerslie Road mean maximum temperature anomaly (Data: Bureau of Meteorology data for station, 94029)

While this might reflect a long-term temperature change for the Hobart region it might also be related to the location of the meteorological station which is now surrounded by roads, houses, car-parks and multistorey buildings.

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Ellerslie meteorological station location in a heavily built-up region of central Hobart, Tasmania.

Highest Arctic Sea Ice Extent Since 2009, 30/1

February 1, 2020

The Arctic sea ice extent is within 1 SD of the 1979-2019 mean and the highest since 2009 on this day. It is no surprise that this remains unreported in media. A plot of the sea extent time series from 2007 to 2020 shows no significant trend and lacks any evidence for a crisis in the Arctic.

Mapped Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) on 30/01/2020 was 14.30 million km2 which is 400,000 km2 or 2.4% less than the 1979-2019 average, Figure 1.  This is largest sea ice extent on this day since 2009 and is within 1 SD of the 1979-2019 mean ice extent.

The average sea ice accumulation rate in the last 5 days is 60,000 km2/day. The 2019-2020 winter rate of sea ice accumulation is amongst the highest on record and sea ice extent, volume and thickness are not expected to peak until March, 2020.

Sea Ice Extent

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Figure 1,  MASIE Arctic Sea Ice Extent and SIE Median for the period 1981-2010
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Figure 2, Arctic Sea Ice Extent (MASIE Database – see above image) for the month of January for the period 1979-2020 with the 1979-2019 average.

Figure 2, shows the daily sea ice extent data for January for the period of available data from 1979 to 2020. The current sea ice extent is well within the 1 SD of the 1979-2019 average and is the highest since 2009. Arctic sea ice extent shows little trend since 2010, Figure 3.

Arctic sea ice extent is not expected to peak until March 2020, Figure 4.

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Figure 3, Daily sea ice extent plot for the period 2006 through 2020.
Figure 4 Annual Arctic sea ice extent 2017-2020 and average and +/- 1SD for the 1917 to 2019

Sea Ice Volume

The minimum and maximum sea ice volume declined from 1994 to 2010, Figure 5 but since 2010, Figure 6, has shown little change.

Figure 5, Sea Ice Volume 1979 to 2019 shows decline from 1994 to 2010 but little change in the last decade.
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Figure 6, Sea Ice Volume for the period from 2006 to 31/12/201. Credit Polar Science Centre, University of Washington

Sea Ice Thickness

Sea ice thickness is calculated from the sea ice volume and sea ice extent, Figure 7, and as would be expected shows a similar trend with decline from 1996 through 2010 and very little change in the last decade, Figure 8.

What can be concluded is that the Arctic is not disappearing and that there is little evidence to support the endless claims over the decades that the Arctic sea ice will vanish during a coming summer. While CO2 has increased during this period sea ice extent has failed to decline as predicted. Where is the crisis in the Arctic as there seems to be no relationship between atmospheric CO2 and Arctic ice extent, volume or thickness?

Figure 7, Arctic Sea Ice Thickness calculated using the NSIDC and PIOMAS data for the period from 1989-2019 (latest data)

Figure 8, Arctic Sea Ice Thickness calculated using the NSIDC and PIOMAS data for the period from 2007-2019 (latest data)

The extent of Arctic sea ice varies from summer to winter. The sea ice extent shown here relies on data from the Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) that runs at the National Ice Centre. The IMS product uses several satellite data sources including passive microwave, but it is also based on visual analysis and other data sources and undergoes a form of manual data fusion. The data reported here has a 1 km resolution and was sourced from the National Snow and Ice Data Centre

Sea Ice Volume is calculated using the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modelling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS Zhang and Rothrock, 2003) developed at APL/PSC. Sea ice volume depends on areal extent and thickness and while extent can be readily measured, thickness cannot and the estimate used here relies on assimilation of observations into numerical models as a way to estimate volume on a continuous basis.

Arctic Sea Ice Extent 25/01/2020

January 27, 2020

Mapped Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) on 25/01/2020 was 14.11 million km2 which is 420,000 km2 or 2.9% less than the 2008-2018 median.  This is largest sea ice extent on this day since 2014. The current sea ice accumulation rate is 65,000 km2/day, the fifth highest since 1979.

Figure 1 MASIE Arctic Sea Ice Extent and SIE Median for the period 1981-2010

Figure 2 Arctic Sea Ice Extent (MASIE Database – see above image) for the month of January for the period 2000-2020 with the 1988-2018 median

The extent of Arctic sea ice varies from summer to winter. The sea ice extent shown here relies on data from the Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) that runs at the National Ice Center. The IMS product uses several satellite data sources including passive microwave, but it is also based on visual analysis and other data sources and undergoes a form of manual data fusion. The data reported here has a 1 km resolution and was sourced from the National Snow and Ice Data Center

Arctic Sea Ice Extent 16/01/2020

January 17, 2020

Mapped Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) on 15/1/2020  was 13.57 million km2 which is 560,000 km2 or 4% less than the 2008-2018 median.  This is largest sea ice extent on this day since 2015.

MASIE Arctic Sea Ice Extent and SIE Median for the period 1981-2010
Arctic Sea Ice Extent (MASIE Database – see above image) for the month of January for the period 2000-2020 with the 1988-2018 median

The extent of Arctic sea ice varies from summer to winter. The sea ice extent shown here relies on data from the Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) that runs at the National Ice Center. The IMS product uses several satellite data sources including passive microwave, but it is also based on visual analysis and other data sources and undergoes a form of manual data fusion. The data reported here has a 1 km resolution and was sourced from the National Snow and Ice Data Center

Arctic Sea Ice Accumulation in 2019 Approaches Record High

Daily Rate of Arctic Sea Ice Accumulation in 2019 Approaches Record High

The well known reduction in Arctic Sea Ice extent during the summer months continued during 2019. This trend has been recorded since the beginning of the satellite instrumental record. The minimum ice extent has fallen from 6.9 million km2 in 1979 to 4 million km2 in 2019 while the maximum ice extent has fallen from 16.6 million km2 to 14.9 million km2 in 2019.

The median ice extent shows a consistent linear trend from 12.8 million km2 in 1979 to 11 million km2 in 2019.

Figure 1 Minimum, Maximum and Media of Arctic sea ice for the period 1979 through 2019

The average daily rate of melting from April through August has increased from 54,000 km2 per day in 1979 to peak in 2011 at 74,000 km2 per day.

Interestingly the daily rate rate of sea ice accumulation in the period October through December has increased from 67,000km2 in 1979 to peak at 95,000km2 in 2012. The current daily rate of accumulation in 2019-2020 is again approaching the highest levels in the instrumental record. Difficult to see anything other than natural processes in this record given its limited duration. Historic records however suggest that the low summer ice extent recorded of recent time was as common in the early 20th century.

Figure 2 Rate of melting (Red) and Accumulation (Blue) of Arctic Sea Ice during the period 1979 through 2019

The sea ice extent data discussed here relies on data from the Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) that runs at the National Ice Center. The IMS product uses several satellite data sources including passive microwave, but it is also based on visual analysis and other data sources and undergoes a form of manual data fusion. The data reported here was sourced from the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Aussie Weather and the Indian Ocean Dipole

Of recent times all the reporting on Australia has been little more than dire warnings and catastrophic coverage. There is however some positive news on the horizon.

Australia’s climate is determined in large part by three major atmospheric circulatory systems, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) the El Nino – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) illustrated in the following diagram.

Figure 1 Coupled ocean–climate system in the Indian Ocean region during boreal (solid blue lines) and austral (dashed red lines) summer. Credit Cleverly, J., et al 2016

Indian Ocean Dipole

Within the northern Indian Ocean there is a major atmospheric circulation system which determines much of the weather patterns that impact Australia. A regular oscillation of sea surface temperatures (SST) occurs in the Indian Ocean and is known as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and is comparable to the better-known ENSO of the Pacific Ocean. The IOD results in SSTs becoming alternately warmer in the west and cooler in the east along the Western Australian coastline (warmer phase) and then colder in the west and warmer in the east (the negative phase).

A positive phase sees greater-than-average sea-surface temperatures and greater precipitation in the western Indian Ocean region, with a corresponding cooling of waters in the eastern Indian Ocean—which tends to cause droughts in adjacent land areas of Indonesia and Australia. The negative phase of the IOD brings about the opposite conditions, with warmer water and greater precipitation in the eastern Indian Ocean, and cooler and drier conditions in the west. This results in increased monsoonal activity in the NE Indian Ocean and increased injection of moisture into the Australian atmospheric system.

The strong IOD experienced during the first half of 2019 and the neutral ENSO and negative SAM created the very dry conditions which results in record low precipitation in Australia for 2019. Since October the IOD has fallen rapidly and while the BoM suggests that it will remain neutral it is equally likely that it will become strongly negative resulting in increased injection of moistures into the Australian atmospheric system later in 2020.

Figure 2 Australian Rainfall and Indian Ocean Dipole Index (Data after BoM)

El Nino – Southern Oscillation

El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific—the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, (ENSO).

The pattern can shift back and forth irregularly every two to seven years, and each phase triggers predictable disruptions of temperature, precipitation, and winds. El Niño describes a particular phase of the ENSO climate cycle when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become substantially warmer than average, and this causes a shift in atmospheric circulation. Typically, the equatorial trade winds blow from east to west across the Pacific Ocean. El Niño events are associated with a weakening, or even reversal, of the prevailing trade winds. Warming of ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific causes this area to become more favourable for tropical rainfall and cloud development. As a result, the heavy rainfall that usually occurs to the north of Australia moves to the central and eastern parts of the Pacific basin producing drought conditions in Australia.

In the Pacific Ocean, although indicators of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are neutral, the tropical ocean near and to the west of the Date Line remains warmer than average, potentially drawing some moisture away from Australia.

Southern Annular Mode

The Southern Annular Mode, or SAM, is a climate driver that can influence rainfall and temperature in Australia. The SAM refers to the (non-seasonal) north-south movement of the strong westerly winds that blow almost continuously in the mid- to high-latitudes of the southern hemisphere as an annulus around Antarctica. This belt of westerly winds is also associated with storms and cold fronts that move from west to east, bringing rainfall to southern Australia.

The SAM has three phases: neutral, positive and negative. Each positive or negative SAM event tends to last for around one to two weeks, though longer periods may also occur. The time frame between positive and negative events is quite random, but typically in the range of a week to a few months. During summer a positive SAM can result in increased rainfall in SE Australia while during winter a positive SAM will see lower rainfall in Southern Australia and a negative SAM will allow more cold fronts to impact southern and SW Australia. In recent months SAM has moved from negative to neutral.

Forecast for January

The Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) is an ensemble product of the Global Environmental Multiscale Model, an integrated data assimilation and forecasting system that runs for 16 days (384 hours). The graphics below shows the GEPS 2m temperature and precipitation output from 12th to the 28th January at 6-hour time intervals.

The GEPS model suggests that large areas of southern Australia should experience temperatures consistently below the seasonal average (by as much as 20C) but with little significant precipitation. Some rain in the WA wheat belt and subsequently in eastern states is predicted as tropical cyclone, Claudia, develops into a rain depression off the coast. Precipitation typical for northern Australia in summer is noted.

Figure 2 GEPS 2m Temperature Model for Australia through January 28th

Figure GEPS Precipitation model for Australia through January 28th