Aussie Weather and the Indian Ocean Dipole

Of recent times all the reporting on Australia has been little more than dire warnings and catastrophic coverage. There is however some positive news on the horizon.

Australia’s climate is determined in large part by three major atmospheric circulatory systems, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) the El Nino – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) illustrated in the following diagram.

Figure 1 Coupled ocean–climate system in the Indian Ocean region during boreal (solid blue lines) and austral (dashed red lines) summer. Credit Cleverly, J., et al 2016

Indian Ocean Dipole

Within the northern Indian Ocean there is a major atmospheric circulation system which determines much of the weather patterns that impact Australia. A regular oscillation of sea surface temperatures (SST) occurs in the Indian Ocean and is known as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and is comparable to the better-known ENSO of the Pacific Ocean. The IOD results in SSTs becoming alternately warmer in the west and cooler in the east along the Western Australian coastline (warmer phase) and then colder in the west and warmer in the east (the negative phase).

A positive phase sees greater-than-average sea-surface temperatures and greater precipitation in the western Indian Ocean region, with a corresponding cooling of waters in the eastern Indian Ocean—which tends to cause droughts in adjacent land areas of Indonesia and Australia. The negative phase of the IOD brings about the opposite conditions, with warmer water and greater precipitation in the eastern Indian Ocean, and cooler and drier conditions in the west. This results in increased monsoonal activity in the NE Indian Ocean and increased injection of moisture into the Australian atmospheric system.

The strong IOD experienced during the first half of 2019 and the neutral ENSO and negative SAM created the very dry conditions which results in record low precipitation in Australia for 2019. Since October the IOD has fallen rapidly and while the BoM suggests that it will remain neutral it is equally likely that it will become strongly negative resulting in increased injection of moistures into the Australian atmospheric system later in 2020.

Figure 2 Australian Rainfall and Indian Ocean Dipole Index (Data after BoM)

El Nino – Southern Oscillation

El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific—the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, (ENSO).

The pattern can shift back and forth irregularly every two to seven years, and each phase triggers predictable disruptions of temperature, precipitation, and winds. El Niño describes a particular phase of the ENSO climate cycle when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become substantially warmer than average, and this causes a shift in atmospheric circulation. Typically, the equatorial trade winds blow from east to west across the Pacific Ocean. El Niño events are associated with a weakening, or even reversal, of the prevailing trade winds. Warming of ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific causes this area to become more favourable for tropical rainfall and cloud development. As a result, the heavy rainfall that usually occurs to the north of Australia moves to the central and eastern parts of the Pacific basin producing drought conditions in Australia.

In the Pacific Ocean, although indicators of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are neutral, the tropical ocean near and to the west of the Date Line remains warmer than average, potentially drawing some moisture away from Australia.

Southern Annular Mode

The Southern Annular Mode, or SAM, is a climate driver that can influence rainfall and temperature in Australia. The SAM refers to the (non-seasonal) north-south movement of the strong westerly winds that blow almost continuously in the mid- to high-latitudes of the southern hemisphere as an annulus around Antarctica. This belt of westerly winds is also associated with storms and cold fronts that move from west to east, bringing rainfall to southern Australia.

The SAM has three phases: neutral, positive and negative. Each positive or negative SAM event tends to last for around one to two weeks, though longer periods may also occur. The time frame between positive and negative events is quite random, but typically in the range of a week to a few months. During summer a positive SAM can result in increased rainfall in SE Australia while during winter a positive SAM will see lower rainfall in Southern Australia and a negative SAM will allow more cold fronts to impact southern and SW Australia. In recent months SAM has moved from negative to neutral.

Forecast for January

The Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) is an ensemble product of the Global Environmental Multiscale Model, an integrated data assimilation and forecasting system that runs for 16 days (384 hours). The graphics below shows the GEPS 2m temperature and precipitation output from 12th to the 28th January at 6-hour time intervals.

The GEPS model suggests that large areas of southern Australia should experience temperatures consistently below the seasonal average (by as much as 20C) but with little significant precipitation. Some rain in the WA wheat belt and subsequently in eastern states is predicted as tropical cyclone, Claudia, develops into a rain depression off the coast. Precipitation typical for northern Australia in summer is noted.

Figure 2 GEPS 2m Temperature Model for Australia through January 28th

Figure GEPS Precipitation model for Australia through January 28th

Will Britain’s’ Exclusive Offshore Economic Zone be Returned to its Rightful Owners?

The United Kingdom has a land area of 242,500 km2. In addition to this, is has a much larger, 731,300km2 Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), to which it surrendered rights to the European Union upon joining that body.

The map below shows the considerable and dominant EEZ in Europe in red.

An exclusive economic zone (EEZ) is a sea zone prescribed by the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea over which a state has special rights regarding the exploration and use of marine resources, including energy production from water and wind. It stretches from the baseline out to 200 nautical miles (nmi) from its coast. The term does not include either the territorial sea or the continental shelf beyond the 200 nmi limit. The difference between the territorial sea and the exclusive economic zone is that the first confers full sovereignty over the waters, whereas the second is merely a “sovereign right” which refers to the coastal state’s rights below the surface of the sea.

As an independent coastal state under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, the United Kingdom will be required to manage the living resources and fishing activities within its Exclusive Economic Zone in a sustainable way. Consequently, it will be for the UK Government, and the Devolved Administrations, to develop and implement a domestic fisheries policy after withdrawal from the EU. In declaring an Exclusive Economic Zone independent from EU waters, the UK would be able to control the access that foreign vessels have to fishing in UK waters. It will be for the Government of the day to decide whether the principle of equal access should be preserved, and the extent to which foreign vessels should be granted access to fishing in the UK EEZ.

The issues are relatively complex as several continental European countries have economic interests in the fisheries that lie within Britain’s EEZ. Britain could elect to continue to allow access or could deny it which could see a return to the Cod Wars of last century when there was frequent conflict between British and Icelandic fishermen in the Atlantic.

The Cod Wars were a national humiliation in the period 1958-1976, will it happen again?

Alternatively and more likely, as an interim move Britain could modify the quota system under the Common Fisheries Policy to the greater benefit of British coastal communities.

Reversion of its rights following BREXIT will be a hard fought battle but one worth fighting as it will allow for rapid expansion of the domestic fishing industry, decimated by Brussels and revitalize coastal communities which have supported BREXIT.

ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 7/01/2020

January 7, 2020

Mapped Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) on this date was 13.23 million km2 which is 470,000 km2  or 3% less than the 2008-2018 median.  This is largest sea ice extent on this day since 2014

MASIE Arctic Sea Ice Extent and SIE Median for the period 1981-2010
Arctic Sea Ice Extent (MASIE Database – see above image) for the month of January for the period 2000-2020 with the 1988-2018 median

The extent of Arctic sea ice varies from summer to winter. The sea ice extent shown here relies on data from the Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) that runs at the National Ice Center. The IMS product uses several satellite data sources including passive microwave, but it is also based on visual analysis and other data sources and undergoes a form of manual data fusion. The data reported here has a 1 km resolution and was sourced from the National Snow and Ice Data Center

Australia Bushfires – When Journalism Lies

Extent of Eastern Australian bushfires as of 7/01/2020. Data from the Victorian and New South Wales Rural Fires organisations.

The bushfire drama in Australia has subsided for the moment so now is a good time to take stock. As of 7/1/2020, the bushfires have devastated an area in Victoria and New South Wales of 49,600 km2.  In eastern Victoria the total burnt area was 12,100 km2 while in New South Wales it was 37,500km2.  

Various media outlets have been reporting more than 100,000 km2 was impacted by bushfires in eastern Australia which is a significant and entirely unnecessary exaggeration.

The prize for journalistic deceit however goes to Matt Zarrel of US, ABC News where he breathlessly shows a map of Australia superimposed on the USA.  The extent of the fires shown on this map (see below) totals 3.6 million km2, slightly less than half of the surface area of the continent or 60 times larger than the reality.  I doubt that anyone can be surprised.

ABC news was so embarrassed by the gross exaggeration they  removed the graphic.  

While the Australian Bushfires in 2019-2020 have been widespread it is worth noting that such events in Australia are not uncommon  as can be seen for the tabulation below for the state of Victoria.  The fires of 1939 covered 35,000 km2, a significant multiple to the 2019-2020 fires which were more comparable in scale to the 2003 and 2007 events.

ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 4/01/2020

January 4, 2020

Mapped Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) on this date was 13.12 million km2 which is 430,000 km2  or 3% less than the 2008-2018 median.  This is largest sea ice extent on this day since 2014 and the 12th highest since 2000.    We predict maximum SIE of 15 million km2 to be reached in early April 2020.

MASIE Arctic Sea Ice Extent and SIE Median for the period 1981-2010

Arctic Sea Ice Extent (MASIE Database – see above image) for the month of January for the period 2000-2020 with the 1988-2018 median

The extent of Arctic sea ice varies from summer to winter. The sea ice extent shown here relies on data from the Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) that runs at the National Ice Center. The IMS product uses several satellite data sources including passive microwave, but it is also based on visual analysis and other data sources and undergoes a form of manual data fusion. The data reported here has a 1 km resolution and was sourced from the National Snow and Ice Data Center

Arctic Sea Ice extent 3/01/2020

January 3, 2020

Mapped Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) on this date was 13.176 million km2 which is 280,000 km2  or 2% less than the 2008-2018 median.  This is largest sea ice extent since 2012 and the 12th highest since 2000.  Sea ice is steading growing in the Bearing and Barents Seas and around Greenland.  We predict maximum SIE of 15 million km2 to be reached in early April 2020.

The extent of Arctic sea ice varies from summer to winter. The sea ice extent shown here relies on data from the Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) that runs at the National Ice Center. The IMS product uses several satellite data sources including passive microwave, but it is also based on visual analysis and other data sources and undergoes a form of manual data fusion. The data reported here hasa 1 km resolution and was sourced from the National Snow and Ice Data Center

Traditional Bulgarian Banitza Recipe

Insanely delicious pastry from the Balkans region
Insanely delicious pastry from the Balkans region

Ingredients

  1. Banitza (filo) Pastry
  2. 350g white “Feta” cheese
  3. ½ cup butter – melted – not burned
  4. 3 eggs – lightly beaten
  5. 1 teaspoon of baking soda in ¾ cup warm water

How To

  1. Pre-heat over to 160C
  2. Grease a 12”x10” or so baking dish with butter
  3. Crumble the cheese into a bowl
  4. Place 2 sheets of pastry and sprinkle 1/3 of cheese (sprinkle some oregano (fresh is better) over the cheese liberally)
  5. Place 2 sheets of pastry and sprinkle 1/3 of cheese
  6. Place 2 sheets of pastry and sprinkle 1/3 of cheese
  7. Place two sheets of pastry on top
  8. With a sharp knife – cut the pastry into 6 pieces – cut through to the pan
  9. Pour the butter and the beaten eggs over and spread
  10. Pour the water over the pastry
  11. Place in the over for ~25 minutes or until brown and crispy

Serve hot, with full cream yoghurt. Fantastic on a cold winter day. Enjoy!

Marine Boundaries and Exclusive Economic Zone Data Update 11.0

Marine Regions releases version 11 of the Maritime Boundaries

It’s out! Marine Regions newest version of the Maritime Boundaries is now ready for download. Version 11 includes United Nations standard country codes and is updated with new treaties. This GIS data includes territorial limits and Exclusive Economic Boundaries. Essential data if you have an offshore interest.

Download here

ISO and M49 Codes

The United Nations Standard Codes (or M49 codes) and ISO country codes per territory and sovereign have been included in the attribute tables of the Exclusive Economic Zones, the 12 & 24 Nautical Miles zones, the Internal and the Archipelagic Waters.

Pacific-centered Data

Now Maritime Boundaries are centered in the Pacific Ocean. These new 0 to 360° products make your life easier when you need to work in regions where the longitude is near 180°.

There Is No Climate Emergency – Letter

With Global Warming protests and strikes held by student in a number of countries, a group of 500 scientists and other “professionals in climate and related fields” have written an open letter to the United Nations . In the letter, the signatories state that “climate science should be less political, while climate policies should be more scientific,” while also denouncing “the uncertainties and exaggerations in…predictions of global warming.” The text is reproduced below and the full letter available for download.

A polar bear in Repulse Bay, Nunavut Territory, Canada.
Paul Souders | Getty Images

There is no climate emergency

A global network of 500 scientists and professionals has prepared this urgent message. Climate science should be less political, while climate policies should be more scientific. Scientists should openly address the uncertainties and exaggerations in their predictions of global warming, while politicians should dispassionately count the real benefits as well as the imagined costs of adaptation to global warming, and the real costs as well as the imagined benefits of mitigation.

Natural as well as anthropogenic factors cause warming

The geological archive reveals that Earth’s climate has varied as long as the planet has existed, with natural cold and warm phases. The Little Ice Age ended as recently as 1850. Therefore, it is no surprise that we now are experiencing a period of warming.

Warming is far slower than predicted

The world has warmed at less than half the originally-predicted rate, and at less than half the rate to be expected on the basis of net anthropogenic forcing and radiative imbalance. It tells us that we are far from understanding climate change.

Climate policy relies on inadequate models

Climate models have many shortcomings and are not remotely plausible as policy tools. Moreover, they most likely exaggerate the effect of greenhouse gases such as CO2. In addition, they ignore the fact that enriching the atmosphere with CO2 is beneficial.

CO2 is plant food, the basis of all life on Earth

CO2 is not a pollutant. It is essential to all life on Earth. Photosynthesis is a blessing. More CO2 is beneficial for nature, greening the Earth: additional CO2 in the air has promoted growth in global plant biomass. It is also good for agriculture, increasing the yields of crops worldwide.

Global warming has not increased natural disasters

There is no statistical evidence that global warming is intensifying hurricanes, floods, droughts and suchlike natural disasters, or making them more frequent. However, CO2-mitigation measures are as damaging as they are costly. For instance, wind turbines kill birds and bats, and palm-oil plantations destroy the biodiversity of the rainforests.

Climate policy must respect scientific and economic realities

There is no climate emergency. Therefore, there is no cause for panic and alarm. We strongly oppose the harmful and unrealistic net-zero CO2 policy proposed for 2050. If better approaches emerge, we will have ample time to reflect and adapt. The aim of international policy should be to provide reliable and affordable energy at all times, and throughout the world.

ecd-letter-to-un

Galactic Colonization: A New Model

2D slice of 3D simulation of expansion of the Galactic Settlement front. Blue is unsettled, red is settled and green is targeted

Jonathan Carroll-Nellenback and partners have published a fine article in Astrophysical Journal on a modelling exercise on civilizational expansion across the Milky Way, addressing the Fermi Paradox. According to a study published last month in The Astronomical Journal, extraterrestrial life might be taking its time to fully explore the galaxy, even using the movement of star systems to make this type of journey easier.

The Fermi Paradox has a long history in discussions of the prevalence of “alien” technological civilizations (i.e. ‘exo-civilizations’) in the galaxy. Originating with a lunchtime conversation in 1950 where Enrico Fermi famously asked ‘where is ev­erybody?’, the Fermi paradox was first for­malized in 1975 and has since become a standard framework for addressing questions concerning the preva­lence of exo-civilizations. Formally the paradox might be expressed as follows: “If technologically advanced exo-
civilizations are common, then we should already have evidence of their existence either through direct or in­direct means”

Assuming amongst other things that any interstellar probe would have a minimum velocity of 30km/sec which would be achievable using gravity assist from large planets within 1 AU they reach a number of interesting conclusion:

  • When diffusive stellar motions are accounted for, they contribute to the Galaxy becoming fully set­tled in a time less than, or at very least comparable to its present age, even for slow or infrequent in­terstellar probes;
  • If a settlement front forms, all settleable systems behind it become “filled in” in a time less than the current age of the Galaxy;
  • While settlement wave crossing and fill-in times are short, consideration of finite civilization lifetimes in a steady state model allows for conditions in which the settled fraction is less than 1. Thus the galaxy may be in a steady state in which not every settleable system is currently settled.
  • Statistical fluctuations in local density of settleable systems allows for the formation of set­tlement clusters which can continually resettle one another. These clusters are then surrounded by large unsettled regions. If such conditions repre­sent the situation in our region of the galaxy and Earth was not in one of the ”re-settlement” clusters it would be highly probable that we would not have been settled (or visited) by another civilization for some time.
  • By consideration of the convolution of steady state solutions with geologic evidence horizons, it is pos­sible to find situations in which Earth may not have experienced a settlement event for longer than some horizon time (assumed to be 1 Myr) even though the galaxy supports a population of inter­stellar civilizations.

Even for slow probes (30 km/sec) they find that the upper limit of the galactic crossing times are just less than 1 Gyr. This is in accord with our modelling for the colonization of the Type A stars within 100 LY of Earth assuming 5 habitable planets amongst the 75 stars that meet this criteria. We estimated that dependent on probe speed would take between 350,000 and 900,000 years.

The authors discuss amongst other things the energy requirements for interstellar travel and suggest that this is a major impediment to the postulated wave of colonization. A multi-generational ship would they suggest require economies equivalent to that of entire solar systems. They consider a ‘medium multi-generational cruiser’ case . This would be a ship traveling at v = 0.05c, carrying a population of 104 people and weighing 107 tonnes. Such a ship would require a power of 6900 zettajoules (ZJ) funded by a solar sys­tem wide civilization of 900 billion people that would generate 1136 ZJ per year. The world presently produces around 1 ZJ Joule and this quantum of energy would require a significant civilizational commitment.

Download the Full Text

The Fermi Paradox and the Aurora Effect: Exo-civilization Settlement, Expansion and Steady States

Jonathan Carroll-NellenbackAdam FrankJason WrightCaleb Scharf(Submitted on 12 Feb 2019)

We model the settlement of the galaxy by space-faring civilizations in order to address issues related to the Fermi Paradox. We explore the problem in a way that avoids assumptions about the intent and motivation of any exo-civilization seeking to settle other planetary systems. We first consider the speed of an advancing settlement via probes of finite velocity and range to determine if the galaxy can become inhabited with space-faring civilizations on timescales shorter than its age. We also include the effect of stellar motions on the long term behavior of the settlement front which adds a diffusive component to its advance. The results of these models demonstrate that the Milky Way can be readily ‘filled-in’ with settled stellar systems under conservative assumptions about interstellar spacecraft velocities and launch rates. We then consider the question of the galactic steady-state achieved in terms of the fraction of settled planets. We do this by considering the effect of finite settlement civilization lifetimes on the steady states. We find a range of parameters for which the galaxy supports a population of interstellar space-faring civilizations even though some settleable systems are uninhabited. Both results point to ways in which Earth might remain unvisited in the midst of an inhabited galaxy. Finally we consider how our results can be combined with the finite horizon for evidence of previous settlements in Earth’s geologic record. Our steady-state model can constrain the probabilities for an Earth visit by a settling civilization before a given time horizon. These results break the link between Hart’s famous “Fact A” (no interstellar visitors on Earth now) and the conclusion that humans must, therefore, be the only technological civilization in the galaxy.

The World Around Us!